Midweek outlook

Point: NWS point near Middleburg/Kerr NC side (36.44N 78.36W)

Source: https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=36.4400&lon=-78.3700 (NWS text forecast pulled Sun Sep 20, 2026 afternoon CT/EDT as posted)

Obs pressure nearby: Nearby KHNZ ~29.94 in (Sun afternoon)

• **Mon 21:** High ~86°F, mostly sunny then 30% T-storms after 2pm; calm
• **Tue 22:** High ~79°F, showers (~80%); NE light
• **Wed 23:** High ~68°F, showers likely (~70%)
• **Thu 24:** High ~66°F, 40% showers; low ~58°F Thu night

Pressure / pattern: Mild-warm Mon → cool wet midweek. Pressure decline into Tue–Wed system, then rising.

Rule: Numbers above are from NWS text forecast as fetched — do not invent finer precision. Re-pull at Sunday 11:00 PM CT gather.

Dam & current / Generator schedule

Border STATUS: NC-primary Cast product; VA reciprocal awareness (VT/). Do not invent VA regs.

Operator: USACE Wilmington / Dominion Energy generation at John H. Kerr Dam.

Levels / outflow (sourced): Provisional `dsskerr.txt` — pool near 289.1–289.3 ft NGVD29 late Sep 19–20; afternoon/evening peaking outflows often ~22,000–24,000 cfs with generation ~140–150 MWH in peak hours, then near-zero overnight (pattern in provisional file).

Generator schedule language: Dominion schedules daily generation from USACE weekly energy declaration (declarations typically prepared Wed for Sat–Fri). No fixed public angler timetable — re-check USACE Kerr data + Dominion notices before launch.

Sources: https://epec.saw.usace.army.mil/dsskerr.txt · https://epec.saw.usace.army.mil/kerr.htm

Schedules change — verify dam boards before you go (ET).

How to fish it — Bank / Kayak / Boat

Ethanol-free fuel near this water

Pin: see `north-carolina-cast-map-pins.md`.

Source: Pure-Gas.org GraphQL `stationsByState` (pulled Sun Sep 20, 2026 CT). Prices not listed — call to confirm E0 still available and current price.

• **0.1 mi** — Satterwhite Pt Marina (UNBRANDED), 6470 Satterwhite Pt Rd, Henderson NC — listed E0 octane(s): 93; tel 252-430-1300 [Pure-Gas id 1561]
• **2.3 mi** — Kerr Lk Bait & Tackle (UNBRANDED), 2989 Nutbush Rd, Henderson NC — listed E0 octane(s): 90; tel 252-438-5656 [Pure-Gas id 5056]
• **3.5 mi** — Williamsboro Grocery (UNBRANDED), 7690 Nc Hwy 39 N, Henderson NC — listed E0 octane(s): 93; tel 252-492-8447 [Pure-Gas id 48318]
• **3.7 mi** — Cruizers (MOBIL), 6325 Us Hwy 1 & 158, Middleburg NC — listed E0 octane(s): 90; tel 252-492-7389 [Pure-Gas id 45052]
• Verify before fuel stop; listings change.

Pure-Gas.org crowdsourced E0 — verify at pump. No invented prices.

Lure box — Top / Mid / Bottom

Life stage + What’s on the menu

Primary species: Largemouth / spotted bass

Bass life stage (late Sep — seasonal, not a dated creel survey): Early fall transition. Surface temps typically start easing after summer peaks; fish begin relating more to baitfish (threadfin/gizzard shad) moving toward creek arms/points at first cool snaps. Still some summer ledge/main-lake holdovers on deep reservoirs until sustained cool nights. If thin local reports: say so and fish the transition playbook (shad-imitating reaction baits + morning topwater).

What’s on the menu: Most likely threadfin/gizzard shad + bluegill/sunfish on banks; crawfish still a secondary. Thin on dated forage reports this pass — label as seasonal most-likely, not a verified hatch.

Also on this water

Striped bass; crappie; catfish; white bass when bait present.

(Regs: live-link NCWRC only — do not invent.)

Heavy Traffic

In Cast window: No Kerr trail event pulled for Sep 21–24, 2026.

Looking ahead: Elevate Outdoors listed Sep 12 Kerr / Flemingtown (already past relative to Mon Cast). No additional Kerr Sep 21–Oct mid event confirmed this pass.

Sources checked: Elevate Outdoors · FOM NC Central

Looking ahead

Cooler mid-upper 60s highs into late Sep. Continue re-checking Kerr evening generation pulses.